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Trade deficit, pause in aid, plunge Egypt's c/a into the red

CAIRO, June 7, 2015

A widening trade deficit and a pause in aid payments from Gulf allies helped Egypt post its deepest current account deficit in more than two years during the first three months of 2015, despite a surge in foreign direct investment.

Reuters calculations showed a current account deficit of $4.1 billion in the period from January to March, down from a surplus of $322.9 million in the same quarter last year. The deficit was driven by a contraction in net transfers and lower export receipts, the central bank said on Sunday.

Egypt's deficit stood at $8.38 billion in the nine months of the fiscal year which began on July 1, compared with a deficit of $543.1 million in the corresponding period the previous fiscal year, according to a statement on the bank's website.

The dramatic drop can be traced largely to an interlude in deposits from Gulf Arab allies, with calculations showing that official transfers, including cash and commodities, fell to $6.4 million for the quarter from $3.8 billion a year earlier.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have given or pledged to Egypt about $35 billion in aid in the form of oil shipments, cash grants and deposits in Egypt's central bank since the army deposed Islamist President Mohamed Mursi in 2013 following protests.

The wealthy neighbours pledged an additional $12 billion in investments and central bank deposits in March at an international economic summit in Egypt, but those sums did not begin arriving until after the quarter ended.

Exports also dragged on the deficit, dropping to $4.6 billion in the third quarter from $6.4 billion a year earlier. The central bank attributed the decline to plunging global oil prices, with receipts from oil exports more than halving to $1.4 billion.

The import bill improved slightly for the quarter, with outflows easing to $14 billion from $15.4 billion last year. Egypt is the world's top wheat importer and has turned from an energy exporter to a net importer over the last few years.

The government has won praise from investors for reforms including initial cuts to costly subsidies last July and the introduction of some new taxes and regulations, but analysts say more is needed.

"Whilst there are plans to cut the fuel subsidy again this summer, it is imperative that more direct and innovative measures are undertaken to increase economic growth and to cut the trade deficit quickly," said Angus Blair, chairman of business and economic forecasting think-tank Signet Institute.

The deficit was partly offset by growth in foreign direct investment, with inflows nearly tripling to $2.9 billion for the quarter. That is up from $1 billion a year ago at the height of a security crackdown against Mursi's Muslim Brotherhood supporters.

Egypt secured deals worth $36 billion at the March conference which it hopes will revitalise an economy battered by political and economic turmoil since a 2011 uprising.

"The growth in FDI was good and it should be expected that FDI will continue to rise this year, helping the overall trend," Blair told Reuters.

Revenues from tourism, a main source of income for Egypt, remained steady, with inflows of $1.5 billion for the quarter, compared to $1.6 billion in the same period last year.-Reuters




Tags: Egypt | Trade deficit |

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