GCC economic integration ‘below expectation’
Dubai, August 14, 2011
As the GCC approaches its 30th birthday, the economic integration of the six member countries has not progressed as much as had been expected, said a new study from Booz & Company, the global management consulting firm.
“The region has shown admirable growth in the past decade, yet that growth represents the efforts of six individual states, rather than a coherent and aligned group operating as an integrated economic entity,” said Richard Shediac, senior partner, Booz & Company.
“More comprehensive integration has the potential to boost the region’s economy much as it did for the EU. In short, there is an opportunity cost to not integrating further.”
Booz & Company evaluated the region’s level of economic integration based on five core dimensions: the monetary union, customs and borders, intra-regional investment, joint infrastructure and knowledge cooperation.
The GCC established a Gulf Monetary Council in early 2010—an important first step toward a regional authority that can set policy for all six members as a single economicentity.
All of the GCC member states, with the exception of Kuwait, have pegged their currencies to the US dollar, which will pave the way for a smoother transition to a common currency if and when it is put into place.
However, the 2010 target date to establish a single GCC currency has passed, and the withdrawal of the UAE and Oman from the proposed common currency is a major setback to its creation.
A critical step for GCC nations to achieve monetary union is to establish a robust system of payments and strong links among financial markets, by harmonising legal and regulatory infrastructures.
To that end, the GCC countries should invest in compatible statistical institutions at both the national and regional levels, perhaps akin to the Eurostat of the European Union. The ability to gather and analyse macroeconomic data is a key requirement for harmonising regulatory policies and risk management practices – as the Greek debt crisis in the EU shows.
Customs and borders
After the Customs Union agreement of 2003, intra-GCC non-oil exports between 2004 and 2008 increased by 27 per cent annually, compared to only 20 per cent for the rest of the world over the same period.
However, intra-GCC trade has never exceeded 10 per cent of total trade for the region. By comparison, blocs such as ASEAN and EU-15 generate 23 percent and 57 percent, respectively, of their overall trade from within their regions.
“Although disagreements have arisen over issues such as the sharing of tariff revenues and wait times at border crossings, there is willingness among GCC countries to remove these obstacles and news reports indicate a determination to resolve all outstanding customs issues by 2015,” stated Hatem A Samman, director, Ideation Center.
“Several member countries have already begun to automate their customs procedures, though these efforts must be coordinated to create a single GCC-wide window in which all member states can share trade information and documentation,” he added.
In previous decades, FDI ﬂow between GCC countries was minimal—only $3.6 billion between 1990 and 2003, for example, or a mere 2.9 per cent of the aggregate regional FDI outﬂow of $125 billion.
However, since the surge in oil prices beginning in 2003, the amount of cross-border investments has increased signiﬁcantly, especially in the telecom sector. Indeed, GCC M&A activity has been quite robust across sectors, growing to over US$26 billion from between 2000 and 2008.
“To further enhance intra-regional investment, the GCC should work to harmonize laws on the investment and ownership of GCC companies in all sectors,” Shediac said.
“The GCC should also encourage foreign direct investment, and it should promote and grow the private sector, with a particular emphasis on measures to diversify national economies away from their reliance on hydrocarbon revenue.”
Multi-billion dollar projects in oil and gas, road, railroads, and electricity have been announced, with several significant milestones having been reached.
As a whole, the GCC is planning a 2,117km railway network at an estimated cost of $25 billion, to be built by 2017.
Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are also making major additions to their existing airports.
Many of the infrastructure projects are extremely ambitious – current infrastructure plans in the region have been valued at more than $1 trillion – at a time when some construction efforts in the region and worldwide have been subject to delays or cancellations.
Therefore, the GCC should consider creating an infrastructure monitoring board to evaluate and spur progress on large-scale regional infrastructure projects, the report said.
The region must also build on the success of interconnection projects, such as expanding the electricity grid to include Oman and the UAE by the end of 2011, according to the report.
Individually, GCC countries have built impressive new educational institutions and invested heavily in R&D, with facilities in Oman, Saudi Arabia and Qatar developing new healthcare and energy technologies, while the UAE has established new entities such as Masdar and Dubai TechnoPark to spur innovation through R&D.
Yet despite these initiatives, the overall region has fallen short of its vision for an integrated, high-quality education system and R&D cooperation, said the report.
“There are no common GCC-wide programs for digital education content and services, and despite the establishment of foreign university satellites attracting high education students from across the GCC, competition among regional institutions has hindered their mutual cooperation,” said Samman.
“In R&D, the GCC has not developed a flagship regional institute for joint R&D spending akin to that of the EU, despite the common economic and social interests of member states."
"The GCC should establish a regional research institution, akin to the European Research Council, to promote, fund, and assess collaborative projects. The region also needs to involve the private sector in R&D projects via incentives that give companies the opportunity to contribute to transnational research and development," he added.
Overall GCC integration
The GCC has reaped substantial benefits from closer integration since its establishment. Yet this scorecard of core issues shows that there is much work remaining before the region is truly integrated, the report said.
A wider economic landscape and a more harmonized financial system will allow the GCC to exploit economies of scale, attract FDI, and negotiate favorable agreements with larger economic counterparts such as the EU.
As global economic competition intensifies, GCC countries must strive for broad economic integration, which will enable the six member states to better face future socioeconomic challenges, the report concluded. – TradeArabia News Service