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Euro zone barely grows in Q3, downturn seen

Brussels, November 15, 2011

The euro zone economy grew just 0.2 per cent in the third quarter as Germany and France posted solid growth but countries at the sharp end of the crisis fared much worse, and analysts expect bleaker times ahead across the 17-country bloc.

Growth in the three months from July to September was on a par with that in the second quarter, but the outlook for the last period of the year is dim, with the region's deepening debt crisis weighing on sentiment and consumer confidence.

'The key point is that this is all history,' Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics, said.

'Forward-looking indicators suggest that the euro-zone economy is likely to drop back into recession in the fourth-quarter and beyond.'

Underlining that view, Germany's ZEW institute reported that its economic sentiment index fell to -55.2 in November, below economists's forecasts and sharply down on October's figure. It said political and economic problems in Greece and Italy had increased uncertainty about the future.

The debt crisis is only likely to make matters worse in the months to come, with countries such as Italy, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain forced to adopt tough austerity measures in order to stop the bond market driving them towards default.

Economists say there is no visible growth strategy in place to counter those cuts.

'Looking ahead, sentiment indicators point to a significant growth slowdown. A contraction of the economy towards the end of the year is possible,' ING economist Carsten Brzeski said of Germany, where growth has outstripped that of its peers.

The German economy grew 0.5 percent in July-September, in line with market forecasts, and second quarter growth was revised up to 0.3 percent from 0.1 percent.

Brzeski said the weak euro, very accommodative monetary policy and ultra-low funding costs as investors scramble to buy safe-haven Bunds had helped drive growth in Germany, the euro zone's economic engine.

But 'with ... France and Italy seemingly drowning in the maelstrom of the debt crisis, the German economy has lost its immunity. Austerity measures in France and Italy will also hurt German exporters,' he warned.

France, the euro zone's second-biggest economy, expanded by 0.4 per cent on the quarter, having contracted 0.1 percent in the previous three months.-Reuters




Tags: Euro zone | downturn |

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