Confidence up on global economy
Geneva, April 12, 2012
Confidence in the state of the global economy among decision makers has reached its highest level during the past four quarters, says a World Economic Forum report.
One third of global experts from business, government and civil society say they are confident or very confident in the state of the economy over the coming 12 months, up from 13 per cent of respondents in the previous quarter, said the Global Confidence Index.
“This quarter’s survey results do not signal a ‘cautious optimism’ returning, but merely caution as the global economy remains fragile. The perception that a significant geopolitical shock is possible in the next 12 months is a clear signal in this regard, given the interplay of global economics and geopolitics,” said Lee Howell, managing director at the World Economic Forum, responsible for the Forum’s Global Risks 2012 report.
One third of the 273 respondents were not or not at all confident in the state of the global economy (down from 61 per cent).
Fear of a major economic disruption also decreased this quarter. The number of respondents worried about this dropped from 63 per cent in the previous quarter to 46 per cent.
However, the perceived likelihood of a major geopolitical disruption remains high: 57 per cent of respondents still think it is likely or very likely in the next 12 months, while only 15 per cent are not worried about it. Business is especially concerned, with 65 per cent saying a geopolitical disruption is likely or very likely, compared with only 39 per cent of respondents from government.
Confidence in the ability of political leadership to deal with geopolitical tensions increased, with two related indices moving to more neutral levels. The percentage of respondents who expressed confidence in the state of global governance increased from 15 per cent to 21 per ent, while that for global cooperation went from 23 per cent to 30 per cent.
The Global Confidence Index – a joint initiative of the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network and Global Agenda Councils – is the only research initiative of its kind, targeting such a large group of international experts who focus on monitoring key trends, identifying global risks and mapping their interlinkages, a statement said.
Respondents to the quarterly survey are members of the World Economic Forum’s Network of Global Agenda Councils, which includes policy-makers, business leaders and academics. - TradeArabia News Service