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Emerging market shares fell 0.2 per cent
after oil prices slid by more than $1 per barrel

Sliding oil weighs on emerging stocks, currencies

LONDON, January 12, 2015

Falling oil prices and a stronger dollar racked up the pressure on emerging equities and currencies on Monday, with Russia once again suffering most of the pain.

Emerging market shares fell 0.2 per cent after oil prices slid by more than $1 per barrel, sending equity indices across oil-exporting Gulf nations lower. Chinese equities fell after investors sold out ahead of upcoming new listings this week.

Russia was the hardest hit, with dollar-denominated shares in Moscow sliding as much as 3.2 per cent and the rouble weakening more than 2 per cent against the dollar and the euro.

"The more oil falls the more the numbers don't add up for Russia," said Manik Narain, strategist at UBS. "There is an enormous amount of pressure on the central bank, which may have to go even further."

Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate to 17 per cent in December and spent $76.1 billion and 5.4 billion euros in 2014 to defend the rouble.

Fitch added to the pressure by cutting Russia's credit rating to BBB- late on Friday. Russian sovereign bonds slipped in price and yield spreads over US Treasuries widened 9 basis points to the highest level since mid-December while many corporate debt issues also traded lower.

In central Europe, the Czech crown hit the lowest level against the euro since early 2009 after weaker-than-expected retail sales data.

Societe Generale analyst Bernd Berg said the data was "putting further pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy as not only disinflationary pressures increase but also economic activity numbers start to surprise to the downside".

Yet lower oil lent a helping hand to some emerging markets, with Turkish stocks 1 per cent higher and the lira strengthening 0.2 per cent despite Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek predicting 2014 economic growth would come in at a lower-than-expected 3 per cent.

South Africa's equity index rose 0.3 per cent, though the rand traded a touch lower against the greenback .

In the Gulf, state-run conglomerate Dubai World said it had agreed with a "substantial majority" of creditors to back its $14.6 billion debt restructuring. The company's 2037 bond fell 0.3 cents in price. – Reuters




Tags: Russia | Shares | oil price | emerging markets |

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