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Germany most likely to win World Cup 2018: UBS

DUBAI, May 22, 2018

No country has higher odds of winning this year’s football World Cup than Germany, leading the table with a likelihood of 24 per cent, said an analysis from UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office (CIO).

Brazil and Spain also stand a good chance of lifting the trophy, with chances of 19.8 and 16.1 per cent respectively. Host nation Russia will start in the Cup’s weakest group and is expected to progress to the round of 16, where it is likely to lose against Spain or Portugal.

Economically, Russia’s estimated spending on the tournament of 0.7 per cent of GDP is not expected to boost the nation’s economy in a significant way. However, it might generate greater economic benefits compared with hosts in more developed economies such as Spain, Italy or France.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said: "No matter whether they are analyzing global markets or soccer tournaments, people tend to be biased towards local favourites. The same quantitative discipline that the Chief Investment Office applies to investments has proven useful in successfully looking beyond a home bias in portfolios and sports events."

Michael Bolliger, head of Emerging Markets Asset Allocation, UBS Global Wealth Management and lead author of the study, said: "Investors can learn a lot from successful football teams. Seeking agility, building a diversified portfolio of talent, and remaining calm under pressure are virtues exemplified by successful football teams and investors alike."

The report includes a section on how to invest in Russia, the World Cup’s host nation, and an analysis of the impact the tournament might have on its economy. While reputational gains are difficult to quantify, CIO expects only a minor uptick in international tourism for Russia as a travel destination.

However, the estimated $12 billion spent on infrastructure and related projects in preparation of the games might generate greater economic benefits in Russia compared with more developed economies. – TradeArabia News Service

Tags: Russia | UBS | Germany |

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