An emerging regional cold war is a direct result of changing US foreign policies towards the Middle East, according to a leading expert.

International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) consulting senior fellow for the Middle East Dr Toby Dodge said America's "conscious decision" to reduce its commitment to the region has fuelled extremism and ignited internal conflicts, reported the Gulf Daily News (GDN), our sister publication.

He said countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have emerged as key players who were trying to push their own agendas forward.

Dr Dodge was speaking at the two-day IISS conference on Business Opportunity and Political Risk in the Gulf and Middle East, which ended yesterday at the Sofitel Bahrain Zallaq Thalassa Sea and Spa.

"Recalibration of the US powers in the region is one of the major outcomes of the Arab Spring - the US has made a conscious and overt decision to reduce its commitment in the region," he said.

Commitment

"This doesn't mean pulling out the Fifth Fleet from the region, which will not happen, instead making sure that they don't get drawn in to the active deployment of force.

"Unfortunately for President (Barack) Obama, after this commitment we see the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL), which is forcing him to use airpower in Iraq and will probably widen use of airpower in Syria, while he is so desperate to avoid deploying troops.

"So however bad the situation in Iraq and Syria is, there is going to be limited intervention from the US, which gives space for the ordinary states in the region to compete against each other."

This, he said, has resulted in increased diplomatic tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well pitting the UAE and Saudi Arabia against Qatar.

"We have on one side Iran, Saudi and the UAE using money to buy clients in rival states and exploit alienated sections of rival state societies," he said.

"It is not a hot war but a cold war where they are using proxies to try and undermine rival governments."

Dr Dodge stressed that the ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Syria have led to the rise of the ISIL.

"The conflicts in Syria and Iraq are separate, despite the undoubted trans-border capacities of ISIL, and the situation in Iraq is about ISIL, where there are three major drivers leading to the rise of ISIL," he said.

"The army that is weak over massive corruption prevailing in the hiring and the ghost payroll kinds is one, while the weakness of the Iraqi state which cannot deliver people's needs is the next.

"And finally, it is the sectarian quota running on the government and cabinet system, which undermines the public representation.

"Working together, these three factors have weakened the Iraqi state and thus facilitated the ISIL rise."

Experts, policymakers and business leaders discussed five major topics during the conference; Geo-political survey of the Gulf, economic policy and regional prospects, Gulf models of development and policy, energy and economic sustainability, and the Gulf's new economic horizon.

The keynote address was delivered by Transportation Minister and Economic Development Board acting chief executive Kamal Ahmed. - TradeArabia News Service