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Oil prices 'could rise over supply worries'

London, November 14, 2013

Oil markets look well supplied in the short term but prices could rise in the next few months due to a seasonal increase in demand and production problems in some Opec producers, the West's energy watchdog said on Thursday.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report that oil was likely to stay volatile with prices responding to political turmoil in Libya, security problems in Iraq and stronger northern hemisphere winter consumption.

"Although the medium-term outlook seems to be one of easing fundamentals and first-quarter balances look comfortable on paper, the same short-term cycles that have recently undermined prices may soon cause them to come under renewed upside pressure," the IEA said.

"The recent easing of prices may be relatively short-lived," the agency said, adding: "End-user demand is on the verge of a seasonal ramp-up while refinery throughputs look set for a steep rebound in November and December."

"Production problems in Libya and Iraq, among others, continue to relentlessly fester, and may prove more market-supportive," it said.

The IEA, which advises large consuming countries on energy policy, said Opec oil production fell for a third month in a row in October, dropping 105,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 29.89 million bpd, just below its estimate of demand for Opec oil this year of around 30 million bpd.

But demand for OPEC oil is seen falling next year to 29.1 million bpd and supply from non-Opec countries is rising steadily. - Reuters




Tags: Opec | IEA | market | oil supply |

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