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GOLDMAN WARNING IMPACT

Oil... extending the second-deepest rout on record.

Oil rout continues despite record China imports

SINGAPORE, January 13, 2015

Global oil prices continued the week's rout with benchmark Brent crude falling for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday to its lowest in almost six years, despite China reporting record crude imports.

Oil fell 5 per cent to its lowest in nearly six years on Monday, extending the second-deepest rout on record, after Goldman Sachs warned that prices would fall further and Gulf oil producers showed no sign of cutting output.

Both Brent and US crude have plunged almost 60 per cent since June last year.

"Oversupply and weak demand still plagues the oil market. These fundamental factors ... will continue to push it down if (they) do not change," Singapore-based Phillip Futures said in a note.

February Brent crude fell to a low of $46.39 a barrel before edging back to $46.53 by 0550 GMT, still down 90 cents since its last settlement. US crude for February was at $45.35 per barrel, down 72 cents, after hitting a session low of $45.18.

The price rout comes as banks slash their oil price outlooks.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their average forecast for Brent in 2015 to $50.40 a barrel from $83.75. They lowered their outlook for US crude to $47.15 a barrel from $73.75, saying it would need to stay near $40 for most of the first half of 2015 before it would hold up shale oil investments.

Australia's Macquarie bank said it expected Brent to hover around $50-60 per barrel in the first half of the year, and then to rally to $85 per barrel in late 2015 as "global oil supply-demand balances tighten".

Dutch bank ABN Amro also cuts its outlook, seeing an average Brent price of $60 per barrel in 2015 and $55 for US WTI crude.

The slight price recovery following the new lows was a result of record Chinese crude imports for December, which rose above 7 million barrels a day for the first time.

"I figured we'd see $40 in the near term, but everything seems to be happening quicker than expected," Tariq Zahir of Tyche Capital Advisors.

Prices were relatively stable last week, but that respite ended abruptly when Goldman slashed its three-month forecasts for Brent to $42 a barrel from $80. It cut its outlook for the US futures contract to $41 from $70.

The unrelenting rout, which has wiped nearly 60 per cent off prices since June, shows no sign of letting up, with many traders giving up attempts to predict a bottom even amid growing signs that US shale drillers are hitting the brakes.

The number of rigs drilling for oil in North Dakota fell by eight to the lowest since 2010.

"I think from a technical viewpoint there's no reason to try pick a bottom right now," said Phil Flynn, an analyst with Price Futures Group.

Four US refineries with a combined capacity of more than 1 million barrels per day were recovering from disruptions at the weekend caused by either cold weather or unexplained fires. Three were restarting on Monday, while the fourth, in Lima, Ohio, was expected to be offline for a week.

"So not only do you have the macro influences on world crude prices, but now you have some refinery outages, so that will put some pressure on US crude," said Richard Hastings, macro strategist at Global Hunter Securities.

Even with oil plumbing new lows, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies appeared no less resolved to maintain their market share, resisting a diplomatic push by Venezuela and Iran to begin cutting output. – Reuters




Tags: Oil | Opec | Brent | Goldman Sachs | US crude |

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