Air passenger traffic up 10.5pc, cargo down
Geneva, October 26, 2010
International passenger traffic in September rose 10.5 per cent year-on-year, which is significantly stronger than the 6.5 per cent rise recorded for August, according to the International Air Transport Association (Iata).
Middle Eastern carriers led the industry growth with a 23.9 per cent increase compared to 2009.
The earlier occurrence of Ramadan dampened demand in August, but boosted September’s traffic. This outstripped capacity growth of 15.3 per cent. Nonetheless, load factors of 76.8 per cent were below the industry’s 80 per cent performance.
International freight traffic recorded a 14.8 per cent year-on-year increase, which is significantly weaker than the 19.0 per cent rise recorded in August.
The contrast between the performance of freight and passenger markets provides a mixed picture for industry performance, it said.
Seasonally adjusted figures show that, compared to the previous month (August), passenger traffic expanded by 2.1 per cent while freight markets contracted by an equal 2.1 per cent in September.
The rebound in growth in passenger markets during September can be attributed to normal volatility in travel patterns accentuated by special factors such as the effect of the Ramadan. Passenger capacity expanded by 7.3 per cent, below the 10.5 per cent growth in volumes, pushing global load factors up to 80 per cent. This is a significant improvement on the 77.7 per cent recorded for September last year.
While freight markets were expected to weaken towards year-end, September’s decline was larger than anticipated. Consumer and business confidence remains weak in many parts of the world.
Re-stocking lifted freight markets earlier in the year, but this has not been followed by spending to solidify the economic recovery. Compared to September 2009, freight capacity has increased by 11.9 per cent, below the 14.8 per cent increase in volumes, pushing cargo load factors to 52.4 per cent.
“It is good news that the recovery in passenger markets continued in September. But the freight numbers are worrying. Freight activity has fallen 6 per cent since May’s post-crisis peak. What we see in air cargo markets is inevitably reflected in the broader economy,” said Giovanni Bisignani, Iata’s director general and CEO.
As international air cargo accounts for 35 per cent of the value of goods traded internationally, it is a leading indicator of economic activity.
International Passenger Traffic
• North American carriers saw their traffic climb back to pre-recession (early 2008) levels during the month with an 11.1 per cent increase in passenger demand compared to the previous September. This outstripped a 7.2 per cent capacity expansion. The region recorded the strongest passenger load factors at 84.1 per cent.
• European carriers met an 8.4 per cent increase in demand over the previous year with a 5.9 per cent increase in capacity. The region’s carriers reported an average load factor of 82.6 per cent. The region is now 2 per cent above pre-recession levels.
• Asia-Pacific carriers posted an 8.6 per cent traffic increase over the previous September against a capacity increase of 6.9 per cent. While the region led the recovery with an early surge in demand, growth in 2010 has been largely flat. Traffic in the region remains 2 per cent below the pre-crisis peak of early 2008.
International cargo traffic: September marked the second consecutive month of seasonally adjusted declines in freight demand (-1.0 per cent in August, -2.1 per cent in September). Freight volumes are 6 per cent below their May peak and is equivalent to pre-crisis levels.
• Middle East carriers bucked the declining trend with a 24.0 per cent increase over previous-year levels. Even through this is less than the 24.2 per cent recorded in August, when adjusted for seasonality this represents an increase of 1.4 per cent over August levels. Moreover, when compared to pre-recession levels, the region’s carriers are carrying a third more traffic than they did prior to the recession.
• European carriers recorded an 11.1 per cent increase in freight demand compared to the same month in 2009. Although European exports have been helped with the weak Euro, freight demand for European carriers remains 14 per cent below pre-recession levels.
• North American carriers recorded a 13.0 per cent growth in September, down from the 21.2 per cent recorded in August, which leaves the region 1 per cent below pre-recession levels.
• Asia-Pacific carriers recorded a 15.0 per cent increase in freight demand over the previous year, a significant decline from the 22.3 per cent growth recorded in August. This took the region’s carriers back to the pre-recession levels of early 2008 and, with their 44.0 per cent market share, contributed the most to the global drop in freight demand.
“The industry’s situation is volatile. Passenger traffic represents about three quarters of the industry’s revenues. While September’s passenger growth is reassuring, the accelerating decline of air freight, including in Asia, is an early indicator of some turbulence ahead,” said Bisignani.
“Government actions can impact the sustainability of the recovery. Austerity measures will dampen demand. When combined with new or increased taxation, as we have seen in Germany and the UK, the challenges are even greater,” said Bisignani.-TradeArabia News Service