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ME to top global air passenger demand
Geneva, December 10, 2013
The Middle East will see the strongest international air passenger growth between 2012 and 2017 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3 per cent with the UAE adding 29.2 million passengers over the forecast period, nearly as many as China, a report said.
Asia-Pacific will see a CAGR of 5.7 per cent, followed by Africa and Latin America with CAGR of 5.3 per cent and 4.5 per cent added the Iata Airline Industry Forecast 2013-2017 released by the International Air Transport Association (Iata).
Globally, airlines expect to see a 31 per cent increase in passenger numbers between 2012 and 2017, the report said. By 2017 total passenger numbers are expected to rise to 3.91 billion—an increase of 930 million passengers over the 2.98 billion carried in 2012.
International passenger numbers are expected to rise by 25 per cent from 1.2 billion in 2012 to 1.5 billion in 2017, bringing 292 million additional passengers (4.6 per cent CAGR).
The Iata Airline Industry Forecast 2013-2017 is a consensus outlook for system-wide passenger growth. Demand is expected to expand by an average of 5.4 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2013 and 2017.
By comparison, global passenger growth expanded by 4.3 per cent CAGR between 2008 and 2012, largely reflecting the negative impact of the 2008 global financial crisis and recession. Of the new passengers, approximately 292 million will be carried on international routes and 638 million on domestic routes.
Routes within or connected to China will be the single largest driver of growth, accounting for 24 per cent of new passengers during the forecast period. Of the anticipated 227.4 million additional passengers, 195 million will be domestic and 32.4 million will be international.
The Asia-Pacific region (including China) is expected to add around 300 million additional passengers by the end of the current forecast horizon. Of these, around 225 million or 75 per cent are expected to be domestic passengers.
With 677.8 million domestic passengers in 2017, the US will continue to be the largest single market for domestic passengers, although it will add only 70 million passengers over the forecast period (2.2 per cent CAGR).
“The fact that the Asia-Pacific region --led by China--and the Middle East will deliver the strongest growth over the forecast period is not surprising,” said Tony Tyler, Iata’s director general and CEO.
“Governments in both areas recognize the value of the connectivity provided by aviation to drive global trade and development. Similar opportunities exist for developing regions in Africa and Latin America. To reap the benefit, governments in those regions will need to change their view of aviation from a luxury cash cow to a utilitarian powerful draft horse to pull the economy forward.” – TradeArabia News Service