Air freight volumes to grow 17pc in 5 years
London, December 11, 2013
The international air freight volumes are poised to grow 17 per cent over the next five years with the UAE and Hong Kong both contributing more than 700,000 tonnes each to the additional freight volume during the five year period until 2017, said a report.
The global freight volumes are expected to grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Airline Industry Forecast 2013-2017.
This consensus outlook incorporates a conservative estimate of the recovery in global economic activity and world trade volumes over the coming years.
"Air cargo is a key enabler for the movement of high value products and perishable goods around the globe. More than $6 trillion worth of goods is air freighted annually, accounting for around 35 per cent of total world trade. But more recently, the relationship between international trade and GDP has broken down owing to rising trade barriers and ‘on-shoring’ of production," remarked Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general and CEO.
The successful conclusion of the World Trade Organization talks in Bali potentially could be very important in kick-starting trade growth, he stated.
"To be ready to take best advantage of possible opportunities, air cargo needs to work together as an industry to improve its competitiveness and enhance the quality of its service to customers," he added.
The key highlights of the 2013-17 forecast include:
•The largest (US) and the third largest (China) air freight markets in 2012 are likely to add more than one million additional tonnes each over the forecast period. As a result, China will supplant Germany as the second largest air freight market in 2017
•Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates will both contribute more than 700,000 tonnes each to the additional freight volume during the five year period until 2017
•The estimated imbalance in annual freight traffic flows from Asia to North America is expected to reach 1.1 million tonnes in 2017
International Freight Developments:
•Africa is forecast to be the fastest growing region over the forecast period with a growth rate of 4.0 per cent CAGR. The fastest growing freight route for Africa is the inter-Africa market (5.3 per cent)
•Not far behind Africa are the Middle East and Latin America, both with a CAGR of 3.8 per cent, and the Asia-Pacific at 3.5 per cent per annum, followed by Europe and North America at 2.4 per cent CAGR and 2.7 per cent CAGR, respectively
•By 2017, the five largest international freight markets will be the United States, China Germany, Hong Kong, and the UAE
•Vietnam is expected to be the fastest growing country for air freight volumes over the forecasting horizon with a CAGR of 6.6 per cent per annum, followed by Bangladesh (5.7 per cent CAGR), Brazil (5.5 per cent CAGR), Ethiopia (5.3 per cent CAGR) and Peru (5.2 per cent CAGR)
•Freight carriage within the Asia-Pacific region will account for around 31 per cent of the expected total increase in freight tonnage over the period
According to IATA, the largest freight traffic shares in 2012 were within Asia Pacific (25.3 per cent), Europe-Asia Pacific (12.1 per cent), North and Mid-Pacific (10.5 per cent) and North Atlantic (10.1 per cent)
Looking ahead to 2017, the freight traffic shares within Asia Pacific is expected to increase by around one percentage point to 26.2 per cent, with smaller gains (of around 0.3 percentage points) in both North America-Latin America (to 6.6 per cent) and Middle East-Asia Pacific (to 6.5 per cent)
IATA pointed out that the traffic shares within Europe and in the North Atlantic are both expected to decrease by around 0.6 percentage points, to 8.3 per cent and 9.5 per cent respectively.
Europe-Asia Pacific and North and Mid-Pacific are both expected to be down by around 0.3 percentage points in 2017 compared with 2012, it added.-TradeArabia News Service