Worldwide air cargo tonnages increased in August 5% compared to the same month last year, while volumes from Hong Kong to Europe have fallen -30% and dropped -24% below their level in June.
This is just prior to the introduction of new European Union (EU) import duty rules from July 1, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data.
The decrease in traffic from Hong Kong to Europe indicate the extent to which e-commerce stakeholders are recalibrating their use of air logistics to deliver relatively low-value cross-border shipments, since the July 1 ending of the EU ‘de minimis’ exemptions on import goods with a value of less than €150($174.21).
Although total estimated Hong Kong to Europe air cargo tonnages in August were around -7% lower than the previous month, on a weekly basis there is also further evidence that the decline has bottomed out, with Hong Kong to Europe volumes in week 35 (August 24 to 30) regaining 3% compared with the previous week and 6% compared with what now looks like a low recorded in week 33.
Tonnages from mainland China to Europe, which are less dependent on e-commerce traffic, have also rebounded slightly, week on week (WoW), for four consecutive weeks after dropping by a total of around -15% in response to the July 1 changes. China to Europe tonnages in week 35 were down -6%, year on year (YoY), and for August as a whole they were down -5%, YoY, compared with -8% in July. Combined China and Hong Kong (CN/HK) to Europe tonnages were down -14%, YoY, in both July and August, whereas they had been flat, YoY, in June.
China/HK to Europe vs US
In comparison, combined CN/HK to US volumes in August were broadly similar to their level in May, June and July, and up 13% compared with August last year, with CN-US traffic up 15% and HK-US volumes up 9%, YoY. But the YoY growth rate of CN/HK to US tonnages, of 13% in August and 14% in July, has slipped from 19% and 20%, respectively, in May and June.
On the pricing side there have also been some significant shifts since July. Average spot rates for CN/HK to Europe have slipped from around US $5.22 per kilo in May and June to $4.34 per kilo in August, a drop of around -17%. And on a YoY basis, the excess this year has fallen from 32% in May and 30% in June down to just 12% in July and 11% in August.
For CN/HK to US, average spot rates have fallen from $6.59 per kilo in June, down to $5.89 per kilo in August, a drop of around -11%. And compared with last year, the excess for this trade lane has narrowed from 50% in May and June down to 26%, YoY, in August.
August volumes 5% and rates 22%, YoY, similar to July
Zooming out for a more regional and global picture, worldwide air cargo tonnages in August were up by around 5%, YoY, with each of the main worldwide origin regions reporting between 4% and 5% YoY growth, based on the more than 2 million monthly transactions recorded by WorldACD’s database. That’s broadly consistent with the 5%, YoY, worldwide tonnage growth recorded in July – and for the first eight months of 2026, although year-to-date (YtD) regional growth rates range from 8% for Asia Pacific origins down to stable tonnages ex-Africa, YoY.
On the pricing side, average worldwide rates – based on a mix of spot pricing and contract rates – in August were 22% higher, YoY. That compares with 24% in July, 33% in June, and 37% in May. Average worldwide spot rates in August of $3.36 per kilo were up 28%, YoY, although they have slipped slightly (-1%), compared with their level in July, and they are down by around -9% compared with their average level across April, May, and June this year. The biggest change, in percentage terms, is a drop of around -17% from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins between their average level in April ($4.75 per kilo) and August ($3.92 per kilo). From Asia-Pacific origins, average spot rates have dropped from $5.03 per kilo in April to $4.52 per kilo in August, a decline of around -10%.
Capacity slightly on the rise
Total worldwide air cargo capacity rose by a total of 1% in the final two weeks compared with its level in the previous two weeks (2Wo2W), with the biggest increase being a 2% rise from Asia Pacific origins. Compared with last year, worldwide air cargo capacity is up by 2%, YoY.
Despite the disruptions this year triggered by the conflict between the US and Iran, total air cargo capacity from MESA origins in the last two weeks of August was up, YoY, by 2%, with capacity stable in week 35 on a WoW and YoY basis.
Nevertheless, compared with its level in week 7, prior to the attack on Iran by the US and Israel, capacity from MESA origins in week 35 was still down by almost -9%, with capacity from the Gulf area down by -16%, whereas capacity from the surrounding subregions was up, from South Asia by 1%, from Central Asia by 2% and from the Levant & Caucasus by 8%.—TradeArabia News Service
