The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its supply and demand projections for the remainder of the year, expecting world oil supply to average 100.7 mb/d in 2026, down 5.7 mb/d y-o-y, and 1.3 mb/d lower than in its last Oil Market Report (OMR), with a full recovery in supplies from Middle East producers deferred until 2027.

The OMR said global oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.5 mb/d in 2026, around 940 kb/d more than estimated in last month’s Report. Nevertheless, the pace of the decline is set to ease from 5.3 mb/d in 2Q26 to 3.4 mb/d in 3Q26 and 2 mb/d in 4Q26.

Global oil production fell by 1.6 mb/d m-o-m to 100.1 mb/d in August, as more than 10 mb/d of Gulf output remained shut in amid heightened security risks. 

Total oil supply is set to fall by 5.7 mb/d to 100.7 mb/d this year, with the expected recovery in the Gulf now deferred until 2027. Production is set to rebound by 8 mb/d in 2027m, stated the IEA report.

Global observed oil inventories plunged by a further 95 mb in August, taking cumulative draws since February to 507 mb, or 2.8 mb/d on average. Oil on water volumes declined by 65 mb as tanker traffic out of the Middle East came under renewed attacks. 

Non-OECD inventories drew by 52 mb, led by China, while OECD stocks rose by 23 mb as builds in commercial tanks more than offset a 19 mb draw in government stocks.