Global air passenger demand declined by 0.5% year-on-year in September 2026, reflecting continued weakness in the Middle East and North America, according to the latest figures released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), fell compared with September 2025, while capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), decreased by 0.2%.

The global passenger load factor stood at 83.2%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year.

International demand recorded modest growth of 0.4%, with capacity increasing by 0.5% and the load factor reaching 83.6%. Excluding the Middle East, international demand rose by 1.7%. Domestic demand, meanwhile, declined by 2.2%, with capacity down 1.3% and load factor falling 0.7 percentage points to 82.5%.

“Air traffic demand fell 0.5% in September, reflecting weaknesses in the Middle East and North America. Nevertheless, this was an improvement from August, with a welcome return to growth in most international markets,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.

She added that similar trends had persisted throughout much of the year, with geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices expected to continue influencing the market.

“Global scheduled seat capacity is expected to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, but the rates of growth remain weak and highly unbalanced between regions,” Thomsen said.

Regional performance remained uneven

Among international markets, the Middle East recorded the steepest contraction, with demand falling 7.5% year-on-year. Capacity decreased by 3.3%, while the load factor dropped 3.6 percentage points to 78.3%. Traffic on the Middle East–Asia corridor declined by 8.8%, compared with a 7.9% fall in August.

North American carriers reported flat international demand, although capacity decreased by 1.9%. The load factor improved by 1.6 percentage points to 84.9%. Traffic declined across three of the region’s four largest international route areas, but contractions were less severe than in August.

European airlines recorded 1.8% demand growth, supported by a 1.2% increase in capacity. The load factor reached 86.1%. Transatlantic traffic fell by 0.6%, an improvement on August’s 2.5% contraction.

Asia-Pacific carriers reported demand growth of 0.7%, while capacity increased by 0.4%. Traffic rose on four of the six largest international route areas serving the region. Intra-Asian traffic remained in decline, falling 0.9%, although the contraction eased from August.

Latin America and Africa delivered the strongest growth. Demand increased by 8.2% and 8.0%, respectively, while capacity rose by 7.6% in Latin America and 8.8% in Africa.

Domestic markets under pressure

Domestic passenger demand fell 2.2%, with weakness in the United States and India outweighing resilience in Australia, Brazil and China.

US domestic demand declined by 2.7%, potentially reflecting subdued consumer confidence, while India recorded its steepest decline of the year at 8.3%. Japan's domestic traffic decreased by 0.8%, partly due to weather-related disruptions during September's Silver Week travel period.

The figures underline the uneven recovery of global air travel, with strong growth in some emerging markets offset by persistent regional pressures. -TradeArabia News Service