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Gulf may stay firm on hopes for oil, Saudi budget

DUBAI, December 22, 2014

Gulf stock markets may stay firm on Monday after two days of strong gains, buoyed by hopes that oil prices have found at least a short-term floor and that Saudi Arabia will announce a 2015 budget that includes heavy government spending.

Brent crude climbed over one per cent to above $62 per barrel in Asian trade on Monday morning. Analysts said Brent had received broad support after testing $60 a barrel earlier this month, and that a consensus was growing that prices would likely remain above that level for the rest of the year.

Saudi Arabia's 2015 budget is expected to be announced as soon as on Monday afternoon and contrary to the market's earlier fears, the budget is not expected to cut spending much in response to the recent slide of oil prices.

Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim Alassaf went out of his way to reassure the market last Wednesday when he said his government would continue spending strongly on development projects and social benefits in the budget.

After such big gains, rises in Gulf markets now look set to slow - the Saudi index is up 16 per cent over the past three days, and it closed Sunday well off its intra-day high.

However, the market is still 24 per cent below its September peak, suggesting further room for a rebound as the panic over oil prices fades.

Beaten-down stocks such as real estate developer Dar Al Arkan, which was the most heavily traded Saudi stock on Sunday and soared 9.3 per cent, may continue to benefit. Dar Al Arkan plunged more than 50 per cent from its late August peak to last week's low.

Saudi Arabia's trading volume hit its highest level since late August on Sunday, a positive technical sign suggesting the market has established a floor.

The Dubai index jumped 9.9 per cent on Sunday, adding to Thursday's 13 per cent leap. Although profit-taking is likely to emerge after such big gains, the index ended near its intra-day high, suggesting room for a further rise in the near term at least.-Reuters




Tags: Saudi | Oil | Budget | Gulf stocks |

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