World merchandise trade growth exceeded expectations in the first quarter of 2026 as surging trade in electronic components related to artificial intelligence (AI) offset the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East, which began in the final month of the quarter.
The heads of four major global economic institutions warned on Friday that the war in the Middle East is posing growing risks to the world economy, with disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz driving down global inventories and threatening energy security ahead of peak summer demand.
Imports worldwide worth $2,640 billion, or 11.1 per cent of total imports, were affected primarily by tariffs along with other trade measures introduced between mid-October 2024 and mid-October 2025 - more than four times the $611 billion coverage recorded in the preceding period, said a Word Trade Organization report.
Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. However, next year trade growth is likely to fall, warns WTO.
