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Opec likely to act only if oil rally lasts

Dubai, January 13, 2011

Opec will only hold an emergency meeting if oil climbs above $100 a barrel and stays at that level, although Gulf states with spare capacity could informally add crude if they saw a need, a Gulf delegate said on Thursday.

Brent crude, which has maintained a premium to US oil futures, this week hit a 27-month high of close to $99 a barrel.

"Opec will only have an extraordinary meeting if oil prices exceed $100 and stay there. We don't want the market to panic," the delegate told Reuters.   

"And if the prices reach $100 and we see that there is a need of supply from our customers, Gulf countries will start producing above their quotas, but this has not happened yet."     

A second Gulf Opec delegate said the price strength would probably not last and customers were not asking for extra oil.

"Prices approaching $100 now is just a temporary situation and will not last and if economies can stand $98, they can afford $100. It's not like we're talking about prices of $120," the delegate said, adding the price strength was not backed up by any lack of oil.

"We didn't hear anything from our customers about shortages of supply."    

A delegate from Kuwait -- which together with leading exporter Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, is one of the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with a cushion of spare capacity -- agreed the extent of price strength was probably temporary.

"Inventories are now lower than they were last year, but I see the current price level as temporary. Once it starts getting warmer, prices will return to the $70-$90 price range."    

Opec has stuck to the same formal output policy since a meeting in December 2008 when it agreed record supply curbs after prices crashed from a record near $150 hit in July of that year.

Its discipline with the system of supply targets has declined as the market has rallied.
By December 2010, Opec was delivering 55 percent of promised curbs, a Reuters survey found.

The third delegate said Gulf states were producing within their agreed limits, adding it was too early to say whether Opec would decide on an output change when its next scheduled meeting took place in June. - Reuters




Tags: Oil | Opec | Brent | Crude | Rally |

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