Oil prices could rise to $120–$130 a barrel in the near term, with a risk of climbing above $150 if supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May, according to a JP Morgan note cited by Reuters.

JPMorgan’s base-case assumption is that the disruption will ultimately be resolved through negotiations after a period of supply strain and inventory drawdowns. Under that scenario, oil prices are expected to stay above $100 a barrel through the second quarter before easing in the second half of 2026, supported by a partial reopening of the strait and a gradual normalization of inventories.

The bank said the size and duration of any price spike would be critical in determining the wider macroeconomic impact, warning that prolonged elevated prices could weaken demand and increase recession risks.

Oil markets rallied sharply on Thursday in volatile trading after Donald Trump said the United States would continue attacks on Iran, heightening concerns over prolonged supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures settled up $7.87, or 7.78%, at $109.03 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $11.42, or 11.41%, to $111.54 a barrel — the largest absolute daily gain for WTI since 2020.

In the futures market, US crude for immediate delivery next month traded at a record premium over the second-month contract, reflecting strong demand for prompt supplies. WTI crude for May delivery traded at one point as much as $16.70 a barrel above the June contract during the session. The May contract touched an intraday high of $113.97 before settling at $111.42