Long-term air freight rates, which were earlier set to fall 5% to 10% in full-year 2026, are, however, now expected to rise 5% to 15%, driven primarily by the supply chain shock caused by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, said Xeneta, the ocean and air freight rate intelligence solution, in its Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid-Year Update
The US-Iran deal should allow a return of container shipping to the Strait of Hormuz, but the scale of disruption caused by the blockade puts a recovery of ocean supply chain networks at mid-September 2026, in a best-case scenario, says Xeneta, an ocean and air freight intelligence platform.
The two-week ceasefire announced by US with Iran will not restore container shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-conflict conditions, with ocean supply chain disruption and elevated rates expected to continue, according to an industry expert.
