Unemployment among Bahrainis could rise seven-fold if the political unrest in the country continues, said a leading economist and businessman.

It could jump from the existing level of 3.6 per cent to as high as 22 per cent by June, warned Dr Yousef Mashal.

He predicts that if Bahrainis working in the private sector continue to be absent from work without a valid reason many of them will have their jobs terminated by the end of the month because they are harming businesses.

Dr Mashal said Bahrainis made up 18 per cent of the total private sector labour force in the country, which was more than 80,000 out of 448,000 people.

Thousands of Bahrainis working in the private sector were not reporting to work and although employers had been compassionate the time had come when companies were going to start caring more about profitability and losses than politics and this was already happening, he added.

'In the last few days more than 120 cases have been reported to the Labour Ministry about people who didn't receive salaries for February,' said Dr Mashal, who is also Mashal Group chief executive director.

'These private sector jobs are not going to be there, and even those who may have taken a salary for February won't get it for March.

'If Bahrainis keep being absent the private sector is not going to be patient, and I expect by the end of the month there will be a lot of terminations.'

Dr Mashal pointed out that according to the law any worker absent for more than five consecutive days or 10 non-consecutive days in a year without a valid explanation could have his contract terminated without warning.

'There could be absence without reporting to the office in the event of an epidemic or natural disaster like an earthquake or hurricane but strikes and demonstrations and politics are not reasons,' Dr Mashal told our sister newspaper Gulf Daily News (GDN).

'The private sector has the legal right to terminate them as they cannot continue to be compassionate because they are losing.

'This will have an effect on businesses who will look for replacements and it will definitely be expats or they will give their employees an open unpaid leave.'

Dr Mashal said protesters were hurting the economy and employment as a whole and if protests continued unemployment could rise by 3.6 per cent to between 20 and 22 per cent by June.

'This means all these demonstrators leaving their work to protest won't have jobs,' he said.

'Even if they are successful in their demands they won't have jobs and a successful economy. If this continues there will be nothing left.

'I call on the Labour Market Regulatory Authority and the Labour Ministry to make the way clear so that when employees don't go to work businesses can get more visas because we still need our businesses to survive.'

Dr Mashal said political unrest in the country was affecting Asian expats who represent 79 per cent of staff employed in the private sector.

He said many expats were scared and uncertain about what was going to happen and some were asking their sponsors to let them go.

'They are seeing on TV and satellite channels how Asians are stuck on the borders of Libya without food. They are also seeing what is happening in Egypt and Yemen and feel this is going to happen to them in Bahrain,' he said.

'Some sponsors appreciate this fear and are allowing them to take unpaid leave.

'Other expats are not afraid and are working but they have no work, especially in the tourism and retail sector.

Leave

'Large hotels have already asked some of their employees to go on leave until further notice and the same is in the retail sector.'

Dr Mashal said the political unrest in the country meant that many Westerners working in the private sector - about 13,000 to 14,000 people - were exploring other job opportunities outside the country.

He said this group of expats mostly represented the expertise and management in companies and factories and if they left it would be detrimental to the success of many businesses.

'Their expertise and knowledge will allow them to travel and seek employment in neighbouring countries and other companies. This will be a huge loss to Bahrain. It will be difficult to replace them because new people will think 10 times before coming to Bahrain,' said Dr Mashal.-TradeArabia News Service