Emerging regions key to global growth push
Manama, June 22, 2012
Global growth has subsided but it should nonetheless gradually reaccelerate in the emerging regions, according to a report by Dexis Asset Management, which has an important presence in Bahrain.
They benefit from lower agricultural commodity prices and will not hesitate to take advantage of their substantial monetary and fiscal leeway, the report stated.
"In the US, the recovery is on a more self-sustained path," the report said. "For several months, monthly job creations have exceeded 150,000 and nominal wages have been increasing at a four per cent annual rate," it added.
Moderate real GDP growth in the US is expected in 2012 at 2.3pc and the thin economic policy margins leave the economy at risk nonetheless, all the more so without a compromise between Republicans and Democrats.
"Even if the uncertainty about the extent of fiscal tightening in 2013 will likely not be dissipated before the end-of-year elections, the US should still display pragmatism and adjust the pace of the public deficit reduction to the strength of the recovery," said Dexia Asset Management chief economist Anton Brender.
"In the euro zone, growth has clearly weakened since mid-2011 and the consequences of the simultaneous deleveraging of the private and public sectors are now becoming manifest," the report said.
"Far from following the American strategy, the euro zone countries have, one after the other, set themselves dangerously ambitious budgetary objectives, neglecting the consequences these may have on growth where public deficit reduction objectives have been stepped up," the report said.
"The acute problems in Greece should now lead the European authorities to revise their strategy," added Dexia economist Florence Pisani.
"Installing bigger and bigger firewalls will not be enough to restore either confidence or growth," he added.-TradeArabia News Service