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Oil demand growth to slow next year says IEA

London, November 13, 2010

Global oil demand growth will slow in 2011 after a brief, accelerated burst at the end of this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report.

Rising consumption in developed industrial economies and rapid Chinese growth caused the IEA to lift its 2010 oil demand growth forecast by 190,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 2.34 million bpd from its previous report. But it trimmed slightly its 2011 forecast.

Overall, global oil demand will still be higher next year at 88.51 million bpd compared with 87.32 million bpd this year.

'Across the board in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), we've seen stronger demand. The thing is we think that these upwards revisions are transient,' said IEA's oil industry and markets division head David Fyfe.

The report cited buying of heating oil stocks in Europe ahead of winter as a factor behind the demand growth and robust Chinese demand for distillates like diesel.

But Chinese fuel switching from oil back to coal for power generation with the new five-year plan will likely temper consumption beyond the first quarter of 2011, the report said.

Next year, oil demand growth will slow to 1.19 million bpd - a dip of 20,000 bpd from the previous report - it said.

Earlier this week, the Opec revised up its 2011 demand growth forecast by 120,000 bpd in its monthly report.

The better demand has led to a drawdown in OECD oil stocks which fell by a day to 59.9 days of forward cover in September from the previous month, according to the IEA.

Crude oil held in floating storage fell by 10 million barrels to 32 million barrels by the end of October from the previous month as Iranian crude tankers were unloaded, the report said.

The IEA saw oil market fundamentals as 'fairly comfortable' for next year.

The agency raised its 2011 supply estimate for non-Opec countries by 250,000 bpd to 53.4 million bpd. It held its 2010 non-Opec supply estimate steady at 52.6 million bpd.-Reuters




Tags: International Energy Agency | IEA | oil growth |

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