In a shock move poised to rattle global oil markets, the UAE has announced it will exit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its wider Opec+ grouping, effective May 1, 2026.

The decision marks one of the most significant shifts in the global energy landscape in recent years, potentially redrawing supply dynamics at a time of heightened geopolitical and market uncertainty. The move signals Abu Dhabi’s intent to chart an independent production path, unbound by Opec quotas that have long shaped global crude output.

State news agency Emirates News Agency said the decision follows a comprehensive review of the country’s production policy, current capacity and long-term energy strategy. It added that the move aligns with national interests and the UAE’s commitment to playing a “responsible and reliable” role in meeting global energy demand.

WHY THIS MATTERS

The UAE is one of the world’s top oil producers. It currently pumps around 3.2–3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, with installed capacity estimated at about 4 million bpd, and ambitious plans to raise this to 5 million bpd by 2027.

Exports account for the bulk of its production, with roughly 2.5–3 million bpd shipped to international markets, primarily in Asia.

As a key Opec member with one of the group’s largest spare capacities, the UAE has played a crucial role in balancing supply cuts and increases. Its exit could:

• Weaken Opec’s ability to manage prices through coordinated output
• Trigger competitive production increases among major producers
• Introduce fresh volatility into already sensitive energy markets The UAE has in recent years invested heavily in expanding upstream capacity while simultaneously pushing into renewables and low-carbon energy, reflecting a broader diversification strategy.

By stepping away from Opec+, the country appears to be prioritising flexibility—allowing it to maximise output and market share at a time when global demand patterns are shifting.

The full impact of the move will depend on how other major producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, respond in the coming weeks.

VOW TO ACT RESPONSIBLY

Following its exit, the UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions.

With a large and competitive resource base, the UAE will continue working with partners to develop resources, supporting economic growth and diversification.

This decision does not alter the UAE’s commitment to global market stability or its approach based on cooperation with producers and consumers. Rather, it enhances the UAE’s ability to respond to evolving market needs, it said.

“We reaffirm our appreciation for the efforts of both Opec and the Opec+ alliance and wish them success. During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all. However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates and our commitment to our investors, customers, partners and global energy markets. This is what we will focus on going forward,” said a spokesperson.

A balanced and forward - looking approach The UAE reaffirmed that its production policies will be guided by responsibility and market stability, taking into account global supply and demand.

It will continue investing across the energy value chain, including oil, gas, renewables, and low-carbon solutions, to support resilience and long-term energy system transformation.

The UAE values more than five decades of cooperation with partners and will continue active engagement in support of stable global energy markets.

Sovereign responsibility in a new energy age While near-term volatility, including disruptions in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, continues to affect supply dynamics, underlying trends point to sustained growth in global energy demand over the medium to long term, it said.

A stable global energy system depends on flexible, reliable, and affordable supply, it said.

The UAE has invested to meet evolving demand efficiently and responsibly, prioritising stability, affordability, and sustainability.

This decision follows decades of constructive cooperation, it said.

The UAE joined Opec in 1967 through the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and continued its membership following the formation of the UAE in 1971.

Throughout this period, the UAE has played an active role in supporting global oil market stability and strengthening dialogue among producing nations.

The decision reflects a policy-driven evolution in the UAE’s approach, enhancing flexibility to respond to market dynamics while continuing to contribute to stability in a measured and responsible manner. -OGN/TradeArabia News Service