Energy, Oil & Gas

Corporate SAF certificate purchases could reach 1.9m tonnes by 2030: study

BRUSSELS
Corporate SAF certificate purchases could reach 1.9m tonnes by 2030: study

Corporate purchases of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) environmental attribute certificates could support between 1 million and 1.9 million tonnes of SAF annually by 2030, up from an estimated 323,000 tonnes in 2024, according to a new study by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Airbus and Accenture.

The study highlights corporate demand as a potential catalyst for increasing SAF production, provided barriers such as unclear carbon accounting rules, high prices and complex purchasing processes are addressed.

SAF can significantly reduce aviation emissions compared with conventional jet fuel. However, global production in 2026 is expected to reach only 2.4 million tonnes, equivalent to 0.8% of total jet fuel consumption. SAF also remains two to three times more expensive than conventional jet fuel.

The report proposes expanding corporate participation through SAF Environmental Attribute Certificates (EAc), allowing companies to support the additional cost of sustainable fuel and claim associated emissions reductions for business travel and air cargo under their Scope 3 emissions targets.

A robust book-and-claim system would enable companies to claim SAF-related emissions benefits regardless of where the fuel is physically delivered and consumed.

“SAF is aviation’s most important decarbonization lever, but airlines cannot shoulder the cost of scaling it up alone. Corporate buyers have a unique opportunity to help build the SAF market, contribute to the cost of air transport’s energy transition, and benefit from recognized scope 3 emissions reductions in the process. The potential is substantial, but it will only be realized if companies can participate with confidence, knowing that their contributions will count and that the process is simple and credible. Getting these foundations right will help unlock investment, grow the market, and accelerate SAF production,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.

Julien Manhes, Vice President, Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Carbon Dioxide Removal Development at Airbus, said corporate demand could provide the certainty needed to encourage investment in production capacity.

"This study clearly demonstrates that corporate demand is a powerful, untapped catalyst for scaling SAF. By giving corporate buyers the accounting certainty they need to co-fund the SAF premium, book-and-claim can transform potential interest into firm commitments, sending the near-term demand signal fuel producers need to accelerate production and lower costs across the industry," said Julien Manhes, Vice President, Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Carbon Dioxide Removal Development, Airbus.

Cost and accounting barriers remain

Despite the potential, corporate participation remains limited. The study found that only around 15% of surveyed companies currently purchase SAF certificates, with many waiting for prices to fall, carbon accounting rules to become clearer and procurement processes to simplify.

SAF EAc typically cost between $150 and $500 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions avoided, while companies report a willingness to pay closer to $300.

Airlines account for approximately 53% of corporate SAF certificate purchases, making them the largest source of certificates for companies seeking to address emissions associated with business travel and air freight.

Jesko Neuenburg, Global Aviation & Travel Sustainability Lead at Accenture, said airlines should develop the capabilities needed to recover SAF costs and prepare for future market growth.

"SAF will do most of the heavy lifting on aviation decarbonization, but airlines and a select group of corporates cannot carry its cost all the way to 2050. Only around 15% of surveyed corporates are purchasing today, but the majority are waiting for the price to come down, for the carbon accounting to settle, and for the buying process to get simpler. Airlines that establish SAF cost-recovery capabilities now will be best positioned when growth in the SAF EAc market accelerates. The opportunity today is to focus on the sectors where demand is already emerging, making SAF attributes simple and transparent to buy, and invest in the systems, partnerships, and customer relationships that can scale as the market matures,” said Jesko Neuenburg, Global Aviation & Travel Sustainability Lead, Accenture.

Three priorities to unlock demand

The study identifies three priorities for expanding corporate participation: clear and consistent accounting rules to ensure emissions reductions are recognised; transparent, interoperable tracking systems to prevent double counting and protect environmental integrity; and simpler purchasing mechanisms, including greater price transparency, lower minimum purchase volumes and shorter contract durations.

The organisations also stressed that corporate purchases alone will not deliver the scale of SAF required to decarbonise aviation. Government support, effective incentives and substantial increases in production capacity will remain essential.

“Corporate participation alone will not deliver the scale of SAF that aviation requires. Continued government support, effective incentives and a significant expansion of production capacity remain essential. But every additional corporate purchase converts climate ambition into real market demand and helps distribute the cost of decarbonization more broadly. The next step is making participation easier, more accessible and more credible for companies of all sizes,” said Owens Thomsen.

The study concludes that clearer rules and accessible purchasing systems could help translate corporate climate commitments into demand, supporting investment and accelerating the development of the SAF market. -TradeArabia News Service