The US-Iran war and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted economic activity, but the negative rating actions for Middle East issuers for the March-April period were limited to outlook revisions and placements on the Rating Watch, according to a report from Fitch.
Seven leading producers in the Opec+ are likely to agree to a modest increase in July oil output when they meet on June 7, despite ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Iran war, four sources told Reuters.
It would take months for jet fuel supply to recover even if the he Strait of Hormuz reopens, given disruptions to Middle East refining capacity, said Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The US-Iran face-off is the single biggest variable across every asset class - from oil to equities - meaning investors should be bracing for a volatile few days ahead, said an expert. Oil remains at the centre of every market move right now with both crude and brent up over 80% YTD.
The Heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank Group have agreed to form a coordination group to maximise their institutions’ response to the energy and economic impacts of the war in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump said the American military campaign against Iran is “nearing completion,” while warning that Washington is prepared to intensify strikes over the next two to three weeks if necessary.
The European Union (EU) will urge members to cut their dependence on Middle Eastern jet fuel and look into increasing imports from the US, in new guidelines expected next week, an official source told Reuters, as the Iran war disrupts global supply.
Energy disruptions from the Iran war strain Gulf oil and gas exporters, while importers like Egypt and Jordan face higher commodity prices and reduced remittances from Gulf workers, worsening economic pressures across the region, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The US nearly became a net crude exporter for the first time since World War Two, as exports surged toward record levels to meet rising demand from Asia and Europe replacing disrupted Middle East supplies.
Opec lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day, the producer group's monthly oil report showed in its first public assessment of the Iran war's impact on the market.
