Oil prices rose on Thursday after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was stopped following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon.
Oil prices have dropped sharply and stock markets have jumped after the US and Iran agreed a two-week ceasefire deal that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz waterway.
The US-Iran face-off is the single biggest variable across every asset class - from oil to equities - meaning investors should be bracing for a volatile few days ahead, said an expert. Oil remains at the centre of every market move right now with both crude and brent up over 80% YTD.
Oil prices rose on April 7 as a US deadline pressured Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump threatening attacks. Brent hit $111.21, WTI reached $114.73, reflecting heightened Middle East tensions.
Oil prices climbed on Monday as markets reacted to US President Donald Trump's threat of further action against Iran and set a Tuesday evening deadline linked to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
An oil tanker loaded with Iraqi crude was seen passing through the Strait of Hormuz close to the Iranian coast a day after Iran said Iraq was exempt from any restrictions to transit the vital sea route, data from LSEG and Kpler showed.
The eight OPEC+ countries, namely the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, have announced an adjustment to oil production levels, reaffirming their joint commitment to supporting stability in global oil markets, said a report.
Oil prices continued to climb on Thursday with no sign of easing, as markets priced in a prolonged supply squeeze from the Middle East following stalled negotiations and firm signals from Donald Trump that the blockade on Iran will remain in place.
Oil prices could rise to $120–$130 a barrel in the near term, with a risk of climbing above $150 if supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May, according to a JP Morgan note cited by Reuters.
The United Arab Emirates’ planned exit from OPEC and OPEC+ from May 2026 is expected to have limited immediate impact on oil markets in the near term but could weaken the group’s supply management over time, HSBC said, while OPEC+ sources signalled the alliance would remain broadly intact.
